Choices

Forego the normal
expand, excite and let the
dice decide today.

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Random page thesaurus prompt: thesaurus

Kid you not that is what word I got for my prompt.

For reference. I retrieve these prompts by turning my head, fanning out the pages, then pointing my finger (whilst still turned away) at a point on that page, and picking that word (I also allow myself to pick synonym of the word I point at, but that’s neither here nor there). The odds of getting the word thesaurus from a thesaurus (not considering human factors or subconscious factors) is 0.001111%… (a rough estimate, there being “over 90,000” entries, so (1/90000) X 100.

Finding this to be an invaluable coincidence I thought today I might discuss probability.

The thing with probability is, it doesn’t essentially matter (contextually) for a number of reasons.


But first

Here is the Oxford definition for probability

  • “The quality or state of being probable; the extent to which something is likely to happen or be the case.”
  •  “A probable or the most probable event.”
  • Mathematics: The extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favourable cases to the whole number of cases possible”

 

So basically, it gives the chances of an event occurring.

Now this can shape your decision making process in some ways, If you know something will work 95% of the time, you’ll probably use it. This doesn’t mean that it will always work, and the 5% failure rate still occurs. This is especially relevant for something like weather.

There is a 30% chance of rain today. However, there are only two real outcomes that can occur, it rains or it doesn’t. Whether (weather) or not its 30% or 90% doesn’t change those two outcomes.

Now, this isn’t to say that the generation of probability numbers are useless, nor that you should ignore them. Don’t go betting on just 00 when you roulette, it won’t go well (but sometimes it might?). But for my “ironic and invaluable” coincidence of getting “thesaurus” as my prompt, even though there is only a 0.00111%… chance of it happening, the same can be said for any other word it could of picked.

So.. to put numbers to the reasons why probability doesn’t matter.

1: Humans experience the things around them in the present and digest it from a position of it having already happened. So an event having a 1% chance of happening that happens doesn’t mean squat to the person it happened to.

2: Decisions are generally made from an outcome based approach, rather then a probability approach. For example, millions of citizens (in many countries) all put their hard earned income into buying lottery tickets. In terms of the odds, the chances of winning a jackpot (in say, the Saturday night lotto in Australia) are 1.2277380239989883e-5% (this is the best jackpot odds in Australia too), that number is SUPER small, ridiculously miniature. Based on this information, no-one would ever buy any tickets if they thought of the probability of it, but the outcome -instant millionaire- tempts the masses every week.

3. Finally, just because something can happen, doesn’t mean it will. While its true the average for coin flips is (probability wise) half heads / half tails, doesn’t mean that I can’t flip 100 tails in a row.

 

In saying all this, being a “writing with probability” blog, I should also stipulate that I also love probability. Despite the bulk of this blog-post being fairly negative towards it, I use some means of measuring chance every day…with just a roll of the die.

Ask me more!

~Dicemaned

 

 

200 follower update!

First of all, thankyou to everyone for the support and for checking out my blog!

Every like/comment/re-blog and follower is precious and I still get excited to see the responses from my little writing project I have here.

In light of the occasion I am going to try another community project, this time with a twist.

Lets write something together!

I will write up the start of a story (it will be quite general to start with) and if you want to add to it, comment the next line (lines if you want) and ill add it to the story (ill also link your blog so we know who added to the story).

This is experimental and, with so many different writers and styles, likely to be chaotic…but thats ok!

Here is the link to the start of it

Communal writing project

comment from this link if you would like to contribute!

Once again, thank you all for reading and here is to the next milestone!

Random page thesaurus prompt: Manner

T’was the manner in my speech

that started this whole mess

T’isn’t my tone nor my screech

but the message I must stress.

 

For the simplest of pleases

or a curtly thankyou

could rend the pieces

of the unsightly few.

 

I stand by my manner

to which I present at thee

and if war must be in my planner

then I shall answer in glee.

 

An opened door, a bow of fancy

was all that was need to stay my blade

and if thoust shall call me Nancy

an enemy you shall have made.

 

So tarry not my brethren soldier

while our foe may not be polite

we are the few whom shall grow older

and may our words offer us some respite.

 

#6

#5 to read the last installment of this story or The full “long” story so far to read the whole thing, including this new content.

After the fifteen minute walk back from my work I arrived back at my living sector. The outside of the building was covered with graffiti spurring its readers to “Suppress the power!” and “Live YOUR life, not theirs!” and other radical messages. I imagine the writer of this would now be on vacation. A small woman in overalls was spraying the wall with a green bubbly liquid and the messages were dribbling away, leaving only the lime green paint on the wall. The living sector building was insurmountably tall, to the point that seeing the top from the ground is impossible. The higher up one gets, the more expensive the rooms become, with the top floors being reserved only for politicians or celebrities.

I lived on the eighteenth floor, being a government worker had its perks after all, after greeting every person I met in the lobby I made my way to the elevator. All the while the speakers blasted the latest musical number “If I had eyes for you, they’d be yours in a giffy” with a beat that made it hard to not skip just a little along the way, and with the bright yellow and blue walls of the interior, one felt like they were walking on the set of an early history children’s show. In the elevator, a screen dominated one of the walls, displaying various stats about the economy, in fast moving lists of numbers. Generally most screens displayed this kind of information between sundown and eight o’clock, or the latest news from the celebs.

While I was excited to know about the economic results (the guys in the wealth department telling me how they have gotten record numbers, putting them all in a fervour) I wasn’t too interested in the celeb scene.

Making it to my apartment, I was reminded of how fortunate I was to be working for the ministry of knowledge. The spacious two room apartment of those of us lucky to work in a ministerial role was a whopping fifty square meters! There is even a separated section for the restroom. In my old place, I had to share this much space with three other adults, and there was a communal restroom, so this is a huge step up. The kitchen was chaotic, but mostly clean. Pots were stacked on top of each other at assorted angles that would make Issac Newton turn in his grave.

In yesteryear only the truly rich could afford a kitchen sink, now it was standard that each household had a sink, and even better all ministerial workers have one per household.

The muffled music from the next doors sound system waffled into my attention

“…and if you get tongue-tied … I’ll be there to guide your joy back to my side..

…and if your smile won’t work… then I’ll help with the pliers…”

Most music played over the network were all computer-generated. There are still musically talented people who can compete with AI crafted music, but such a talent is few and far between. Generally artists will work in the prop’ department, and rarely do they strike out on their own.