Random page thesaurus prompt: thesaurus

Kid you not that is what word I got for my prompt.

For reference. I retrieve these prompts by turning my head, fanning out the pages, then pointing my finger (whilst still turned away) at a point on that page, and picking that word (I also allow myself to pick synonym of the word I point at, but that’s neither here nor there). The odds of getting the word thesaurus from a thesaurus (not considering human factors or subconscious factors) is 0.001111%… (a rough estimate, there being “over 90,000” entries, so (1/90000) X 100.

Finding this to be an invaluable coincidence I thought today I might discuss probability.

The thing with probability is, it doesn’t essentially matter (contextually) for a number of reasons.


But first

Here is the Oxford definition for probability

  • “The quality or state of being probable; the extent to which something is likely to happen or be the case.”
  •  “A probable or the most probable event.”
  • Mathematics: The extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favourable cases to the whole number of cases possible”

 

So basically, it gives the chances of an event occurring.

Now this can shape your decision making process in some ways, If you know something will work 95% of the time, you’ll probably use it. This doesn’t mean that it will always work, and the 5% failure rate still occurs. This is especially relevant for something like weather.

There is a 30% chance of rain today. However, there are only two real outcomes that can occur, it rains or it doesn’t. Whether (weather) or not its 30% or 90% doesn’t change those two outcomes.

Now, this isn’t to say that the generation of probability numbers are useless, nor that you should ignore them. Don’t go betting on just 00 when you roulette, it won’t go well (but sometimes it might?). But for my “ironic and invaluable” coincidence of getting “thesaurus” as my prompt, even though there is only a 0.00111%… chance of it happening, the same can be said for any other word it could of picked.

So.. to put numbers to the reasons why probability doesn’t matter.

1: Humans experience the things around them in the present and digest it from a position of it having already happened. So an event having a 1% chance of happening that happens doesn’t mean squat to the person it happened to.

2: Decisions are generally made from an outcome based approach, rather then a probability approach. For example, millions of citizens (in many countries) all put their hard earned income into buying lottery tickets. In terms of the odds, the chances of winning a jackpot (in say, the Saturday night lotto in Australia) are 1.2277380239989883e-5% (this is the best jackpot odds in Australia too), that number is SUPER small, ridiculously miniature. Based on this information, no-one would ever buy any tickets if they thought of the probability of it, but the outcome -instant millionaire- tempts the masses every week.

3. Finally, just because something can happen, doesn’t mean it will. While its true the average for coin flips is (probability wise) half heads / half tails, doesn’t mean that I can’t flip 100 tails in a row.

 

In saying all this, being a “writing with probability” blog, I should also stipulate that I also love probability. Despite the bulk of this blog-post being fairly negative towards it, I use some means of measuring chance every day…with just a roll of the die.

Ask me more!

~Dicemaned

 

 

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Diceman sayeth 6

I was told today by a hypnotherapist that I am whats called a “positive anchor” (one of my customers told me, this was not a session I went to) and apart from feeling pretty good about the complement it got me thinking.

It takes so little to positively impact the lives of those around you.

Now if you can raise millions of dollars for charity…great… then do that, but for those of us who can’t, find a way, in your daily life, to create opportunities for interactions with your community. Ask your neighbour about their day, have a chat with the gent ahead of you in-line for groceries. It doesnt take much and it could make someones day.

.

Its the things we receive willingly for free that is treasured the most. Love, companionship, friendship, community and family.

Thanks for reading, and love thyself and those around you.

-dicemaned

A little about me

I’ve been writing content for this blog for… oh about eight months now, and I haven’t really written much about myself (the blog was really a space to practice poetry, writing stories or thoughts) but today I think I want to write something about myself.

 

So when I was a toddler (well, about one and a half, so infant?) I was sitting in a high chair and fell backwards, falling into a glazed window and cracking it with my head. Supposedly, after this I did not cry, but laughed. There are two conclusions that I have as to why this occurred; The first conclusion being I suffered from minor brain damage and did not have the capacity to tell anyone about it, the second conclusion is my apparent early signs of being a optimist and seeing the best in any situation.

 

At the tender age of 31 I sit here in front of my computer (windows, never a mac) and I wholeheartedly believe that its the optimism that keeps me happy and going. Did I suffer from a concussion at a young age and has it affected me? Who knows, doubtful, but who knows.

 

I have a common saying in my workplace, it usually occurs from the following (sort) of dialogue

“Your always so chipper and happy Ed” <customer>

“That’s because my lungs still work” <Me>

“Oh…ok then, that’s a wonderful attitude to have” <customer>

I could tell you that a part of that is my “customer service persona”, but in reality I live by the ideology of “every day is a blessing”

If you wake up today, it could be worse so enjoy it. Do you have a roof to sleep under, with electricity, can you afford food? Then there are others who would dream of such things, and appreciating that is always my default stance for this world.

It helps even more to be surrounded by friendly faces, a loving partner who makes great food (gone are the days of microwave noodles, ham/cheese sandwiches or just a boiled egg) and a job I don’t necessarily hate.

Stay positive, and thanks for visiting my site!

~Ed

 

(photo is from my trip to Niagara falls, I was so very very soaking haha)

 

 

 

 

Diceman sayeth #5

And yay, in knowethin’ ye shalt ordereth thee tomato salad wheneth thee desireth thee parmy isith thy willeth ofeth the’eth dice’eth

 

Enough of that

The lesson from the diceman is not one that should be taken literally. I do not expect others to run around throwing dice to decide upon their life decisions (this is my folly and my folly to follow as I deem fit). The lesson is… to always be trying new things and experiences. Don’t always go to the same holiday destinations, don’t always eat at your favourite restaurant, and eat your favourite meal. Push your limits, go to Kenya and build schools, go base jumping, walk instead of driving everywhere.

Order the tomato salad.

 

~Dicemaned

Community prompt: Leadership morals and adverse affects on parental guidance strategies

Being a parent is difficult, the variety of adaptations and stress’s that need to be considered in raising a child are innumerable and plentiful. Add onto this, the idea that parental studies from even five year ago are somewhat obsolete in this exponentially changing world, and these stress’s are even greater.

For even an toddler or primary school student, there is an abundance of information at the literal fingertips of a child, and monitoring this is difficult. The sheer magnitude of idiocracy in the political realm is mindboggling, and something that I would not be able to explain to myself, let alone a child.

Similarly, explaining why it isn’t alright to lie to a child when the media is awash with fervent lying is difficult. I would advocate for a combination of limitation and explanation.

I.e. dont let your child watch every trump speech, perhaps just once in a while, and be at hand to try to explain away some of the crazy.

Hopefully the times that you can do this will give your child the tools necessary to interpret the abundance of information about it on the internet.

Other potential strategies for dealing with information overload are…

1. Abstinence. Highly not recommended. This is when you cut off all access to the internet media. While it does solve the problem it alienates the child from the issues, and the abstinence will eventually be black market style, and to a worse degree.

2. Reflection. Having your child keep a journal or diary of things they have learnt, and getting them to explain it to you regularly, can allow you to monitor or at least filter some of the media madness.

Personally, I feel somewhat blessed over this, the australian prime minister being a complete non-personality that I would struggle to find anything he said of value.

Thanks for the prompt! I know it took a while but I get distracted haha

Sayings?

My love for you

Is like the sun

Its a giant almost endless explosion.

….

People who tell me

“We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it”

Dont comprehend my levels of travel anxiety.

….

Its sometimes really exhausting

Having a four hour nap.

Id best get some sleep.